As we stand at the dawn of this 2026, it is impossible to map out the route for the next twelve months without taking a deep and analytical look at the year we have just closed. 2025 has not been just any year for the real estate sector in the Levante Almeriense; it has been the year of confirmation, of a cycle change and, for us at ZAR 2010, a year to remember.
We closed the 2025 financial year with a sales volume we hadn’t seen in nearly two decades. It has been, indisputably, our best year since 2006, a milestone that not only celebrates the work of our team but acts as the most reliable thermometer of the vibrant health of our market. We approach this 2026 with renewed energy and expectations grounded in real data, not just hope.
2025: The Consolidation of the Upward Trend and the Supply “Shock”
If anything defined last year, it was the definitive consolidation of the price rise and, even more crucially, the drastic reduction of the stock of available housing. What in 2024 seemed like a punctual correction, in 2025 became a structural reality: there is increasingly less quality product on the market, both in new construction and second-hand.
This phenomenon has been especially acute in Garrucha. While neighboring towns maintain a “healthy” rotation flow, Garrucha has entered a phase of supply tension that pressures prices upwards.
To understand the magnitude of this scarcity, we have carried out a comparative analysis of the current supply (January 2026) on the main real estate portals (Idealista), crossing it with census population data at the close of 2025. The data is revealing:
Mojácar, with a lower registered population than Garrucha, maintains a supply of second-hand housing hovering around 500 properties. In contrast, in Garrucha, with a larger resident population, that figure has plummeted below 200 properties. For its part, Vera, which comfortably exceeds the 20,000 inhabitant barrier, shows a supply of slightly less than 700 units (658 specifically today).
Comparative Table of Supply Tension (January 2026)
To better visualize the demographic pressure on real estate supply, we have prepared the following table. The column “Inhabitants per Home for Sale” is key: the higher the number, the greater the relative scarcity (there are theoretically more people “competing” for each available house).
Analysis: As observed, Garrucha presents the highest market tension. There are more than 50 inhabitants for every home for sale, almost double that in Vera and triple that in Mojácar. This explains why prices in Garrucha have resisted so strongly and why housing flies off the shelves.
2026: Price Slowdown? The AVE Effect says “No”
Currently, the trend remains upward. While traditional economic logic would suggest a possible slowdown in price increases after the push of 2025, the Levante Almeriense has an “ace up its sleeve” that breaks that logic: Investment in Infrastructure.
The imminent arrival of the AVE (High-Speed Train) to Vera is acting as a catalyst for massive investment. It is not a distant promise; the works are a tangible reality advancing at cruising speed.
Related News: The progress of the Mediterranean Corridor works and the Almería-Murcia High-Speed line has entered its decisive phase.
From ZAR 2010, we are observing a movement of capital and an aggressive increase in demand for residential land for development, as well as a reactivation of hotel demand by national and foreign investors.
This injection of capital draws us a very clear future picture. Although we do not yet see the landscape plagued with cranes, the trend indicates that they will begin to be protagonists of the skyline throughout this 2026, gaining much greater intensity in 2027. This construction resurgence will recall the effervescence experienced between 2002 and 2007 throughout the Almanzora Valley, but with a fundamental difference: now demand is more qualified and key infrastructure (AVE) is a reality in progress, not just a project on a blueprint.
The Year of Transition: From Second-Hand to New Construction
We consider that 2026 will be a year of strategic transition.
The scarcity of second-hand properties we have detailed will force the market to veer towards new construction. During this year, we will see how new developments (which are already brewing) come to market to compete for the buyer. This will increase global supply looking towards 2027, but with an important nuance: these homes will be acquired in 2026 under a pre-sale regime and during preliminary construction phases.
The 2026 buyer will have the opportunity to enter new projects at launch prices, before the handover of keys in 2027/28 consolidates higher final prices.
Price Evolution 2025: An Unstoppable Trend
Below, we present a graph illustrating the upward trend in prices per square meter (€/m²) experienced month by month during the past year 2025 in the three key localities, evidencing how supply tension has constantly pushed values upwards.
Analysis: As observed, Garrucha presents the highest market tension. There are more than 50 inhabitants for every home for sale, almost double that in Vera and triple that in Mojácar. This explains why prices in Garrucha have resisted so strongly and why housing flies off the shelves.
Conclusion: Wait or Buy?
No one has a crystal ball to guess the future with millimetric accuracy. However, analyzing market fundamentals—scarcity of supply in key areas like Garrucha, imminent arrival of critical infrastructure like the AVE, and the return of developer investment—we can map out a prediction with a high degree of confidence.
In a scenario without unforeseen external alterations (black swans), it can be asserted that the price rise shows no signs of slowing down in the short term. Demand pressure exceeds the pace of construction.
Therefore, our conclusion from ZAR 2010 is clear: 2026 will be a better year to buy than 2027. Whoever acquires a property today, whether scarce resale or new construction off-plan, will be capitalizing on a revaluation that will be much more costly to assume next year.
The time to position oneself in the Levante Almeriense is now.
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