ALMERÍA CLOSE TO SURPASSING CÓRDOBA AND WINNING THE TITLE OF “FIFTH PROVINCE OF ANDALUSIA” (BY POPULATION)
The province of Almería is on trend. We do not say it, it says it, year after year, the I.N.E. (National Institute of Statistics) with its constant updates of economic and demographic data that provide us with a precise snapshot of the state of the territory as a whole and, going deeper, putting the magnifying glass on the data, at a regional, provincial and even local level of all and each of the 8,124 municipalities that make up Spain. Thus, we have decided to pay attention to the evolution of the population of the 8 Andalusian provinces from the year 2000 to the present day and it is interesting to observe how the different provinces have evolved throughout the 21st century with clearly different trends. Despite the fact that the region’s growth over these years is notorious with a clearly upward trend, so is the fact that not all provinces have behaved in the same way. Based on the data, we draw the following conclusions:
- SEVILLE continues to be the capital of Andalusia and not only administratively but also due to population size, although MÁLAGA is hot on its heels with increases (in relative and absolute terms) much higher, year after year, than those of the Andalusian capital. Based on the data, and as long as the trends in both provinces continue, it is a matter of time before the province of the Costa del Sol ends up surpassing a Seville that seems to maintain an almost flat trend based mainly on natural growth. Unlike this, Malaga improves the data thanks, in addition, to the strong contribution of the immigration it receives.
- CÁDIZ, with just over 1.2 million inhabitants, holds the third position maintaining a flat trend, with hardly any changes in the last two decades, although its wide distance with the next province (Granada) seems wide enough to remain on the podium for a long time.
- With clearly downward trends we find the provinces of CÓRDOBA and JAÉN whose growth is based mainly on the birth rate and not so much on immigration.
- With upward trends, although at different speeds, we find ALMERÍA, GRANADA and HUELVA. Among them, the dynamism of Almería stands out, whose population has increased by almost 50% compared to the records of the year 2000. Although the difference with Granada is still wide, the evolution of both leads us to think that this range will gradually narrow until reaching an “overtaking” that could occur at the end of the next decade. Huelva, on the other hand, maintains a softer but constant pace. It could even be said that a somewhat healthier rhythm since sudden population increases can produce temporary deficiencies in services to citizens since administrations generally do not respond to changes instantly.
With the data in hand, we observe the narrow gap that separates the provinces of Córdoba and Almería. Historically, the province of the mosque has always been a land of greater economic and demographic dynamism, and although Almería already surpasses Cordoba in GDP per capita, they still have a total production (GDP) somewhat higher than that of Almería. Returning to the issue that concerns us, and leaving economic data aside, the opposite trends (Córdoba negative and Almería positive) lead us to the conclusion that the setback between the two provinces is inevitable in a few years. If the trends continue and there are no events (economic crises or pandemics) through, it is very possible that Almería will surpass its Andalusian counterpart in population between the years 2025 and 2026.
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Datos facilitados por el INE (https://www.ine.es/)
En conclusión, se observa claramente un mayor dinamismo en la provincias costeras de Andalucía, con especial mención a MÁLAGA y ALMERÍA, con crecimientos muy superiores al resto de sus vecinos andaluces lo que se ve reflejado en mayores movimientos migratorios con saldos positivos que se suman al crecimiento vegetativo de la población. En el lado opuesto se encuentran las provincias de interior que sufren un estancamiento en sus cifras de población, con ligeros saldos negativos año tras año, viéndose superadas por sus provincias vecinas y sin atisbo de cambio en esta tendencia de “vaciado”.
